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August 2018 China. Shuitou Stone Index Monthly Viewing Point
Sep 10, 2018

August 2018 "China. Shuitou Stone Index" monthly viewing point

The peak season will be bullish, and the trend of the prosperity index is improving.

--August 2018 "China·Shuitou Stone Index"

According to the "China·Shuitou Stone Index" information system monitoring, the stone boom index closed at 108.84 points in August, up 5.36 points month on month, and the prosperity index rose slightly. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell 5.35 points, down about 4.69%. In August, the indicators rose steadily, the production capacity of enterprises increased, and the prosperity index rebounded slightly.

First, the prosperity index

Through the market survey of several major indicators such as output, sales volume, orders, inventory, labor and economic benefits, and the forecast of the next month's prosperity, the subjective judgment results are statistically calculated, and the stone boom index is closed in August. At 108.84 points, the chain increased by 5.36 points, down 5.35 points compared with the same period of last year, down about 4.69%. In August, the prosperity index rebounded slightly, and after falling for four consecutive months, it rebounded this month.

According to the survey results, about 50% of this month thinks that the indicators are the same as the previous period. About 35.2% of the sample companies think that the indicators have increased compared with the previous period, and about 14.8% think that the indicators are lower than the previous period. Compared with the previous month's indicator, this month, the proportion of each indicator increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the ratio increased by 10 points. The proportion of flat pages decreased, which was down by 9 points. The trend has dropped by 1 point. In general, this month's economic indicators are picking up.

From the indicators of this month, the sample companies believe that the proportion of the increase in various indicators has increased from the previous month, the largest proportion of the indicators are enterprise inventory and corporate economic benefits, accounting for 42.1%, 34.2%, respectively. The biggest increase this month was the output of enterprises, which rose by 16.3 points. This month, the proportion of all flats is still relatively large, but the proportion of each share has decreased compared with that of July. The largest proportion of this month is the employment and inventory of enterprises, accounting for 65.8% and 55.3% respectively. The largest decline was for enterprise output, down 14.4 points. Compared with the increase and the balance, this month, the reduction of various indicators tends to be stable, and the overall change is small. The largest proportion of the contract is the contract, which is 26.3%, of which the output and inventory are slightly lower than last month. In addition, others have risen slightly.

The sample company's forecast for the next month's prosperity shows that the sample companies in August judged the company's operating conditions next month: 44.7% think the ring will be better, 47.4% think it will be flat, 7.9% think it will fall, that is, nearly half of the sample companies I believe that my business will be better next month. The overall judgment of the sample enterprises on the next month's prosperity of the stone industry is: 39.5% think that the chain will rise, 50% think that the ring is flat, and 10.5% think that the chain is down. Compared with July, these two indicators believe that the proportion of the decline in the chain has increased.

Second, the monthly price index point of view

According to system monitoring, the price index of stone in August closed at 95.78 points, up 0.02 points month on month, up by about 0.02%. The stone price index continued to rise slightly this month, and the price remained relatively stable. The monthly price index was 99.51 points, which is still lower than the price of the same period last year. Among them, the price of granite and other stone materials was the same as that of last month, the price of marble rose slightly, and the price of synthetic marble declined. From the trend of the weekly price index, the price of this month has been volatility and the price has risen slightly. After the price dropped slightly in the first half of the year, the price has risen slightly to the end of the month to a small price at the end of the month.

The price index on marble this month closed at 97.16 points, up by 0.09 points in July and up by 0.09%. The price continued to rise slightly this month. The monthly price index was 100.03 points, slightly higher than the same period last year. This month's marble price index showed a trend of rising all the way, the lowest price in the first week, the highest price at the end of the month, up 0.08 points. The price of marble slabs has risen this month. It closed at 94.1 points this month, up 0.19 points, and the price has changed a lot. The prices of blocks and finished products are the same as last month. This month, the price of some large plates has been adjusted with the fluctuation of market conditions. The price of large plates has been rising this month, but most of the prices of large plates have stabilized. Newly-grinded large plates have been launched one after another. The new grinding plates have high gloss and uniform surface. Clear grain, high quality, and price advantage. The price of marble slabs this month has pushed the price of marble to continue to rise slightly.

The price index for granite this month closed at 87.37 points, unchanged from the previous month. The price of granite remained stable this month. The monthly price index was 98.48 points, and the price this month is still lower than the same period last year. The price of granite this month was stable, and there was no fluctuation in the prices of blocks, slabs and finished products, which were reported at 85.95, 100 and 74.12 respectively.

The price of synthetic marble closed at 101.68 points this month, down 0.21 points from the previous month, down about 0.20%, and the monthly price index was 98.66 points. Compared with the same period of last year, the price is still lower and the decline is increasing. The price index of this month was V-shaped, and the price fluctuations changed greatly. After the price dropped sharply in the second week, the third week to the end of the month slowly rose. As the market for synthetic marble changed, the blocks and finished products were flat with the previous month, and the price of large plates fell sharply, closing at 103.16, 119.82 and 99.75 points respectively.

The price index of other stone products closed at 90.00 points this month and remained stable. The monthly price index was 100.0 points, which was the same as that of the same period last year. The price trend of other stone materials remained stable this month, and the weekly prices were basically unchanged. The prices of jade and travertine were the same as last month, and the price of quartz stone increased slightly.

Third, the main factors affecting the prosperity of the stone industry

    After the four-day losing streak in the stone industry boom, the trend of the economy began to improve in August. In the first half of the year, the Nanan stone market has been in a downturn after a brief recovery in the spring market. From the indicators of this month: (1) Increase in production and sales of enterprises. The proportion of production and sales volume increased by 36.8% this month, both of which were significantly higher than last month. Near the "Golden September and Silver 10" building industry in the traditional peak season, companies have prepared in advance to increase production, for the autumn boom. (2) Increase in the inventory of enterprises. This month, the company's stocks believe that the proportion of increase increased by 12.7 points, accounting for 42.1%. With the approach of the traditional peak season, most stone mills strengthened the inventory preparation season in August, increasing the quantity of feed, adding new products, adding stocks, Ensure adequate supply at critical times. (3) The market outlook is expected to be more positive. More than 40% of companies this month believe that the business situation will be better next month, and the outlook for the next month is also more optimistic.

    “Golden September and Silver 10” has always been the peak season for the sales of the real estate market, and it is also the peak season for the sales of home furnishing materials for its downstream industries. Stone enterprises have entered the home improvement industry and prepared for the "Golden September and Silver 10" in advance. Many merchants have adopted joint promotion to attract more passengers in the overall planned preferential activities. At the same time, the brand alliance model can achieve a win-win situation for both merchants and consumers. At the same time, the boutique market has started the renovation and expansion project, which has expanded the market area by hundreds of square meters. It is to make the market more complete and provide better and more complete choices for the upcoming peak season.

    Although the steady growth of domestic real estate inventory has been effective, the demand for building decoration materials is strong, the use of stone materials has increased, and the inventory pressure has eased. However, the downward pressure on the domestic macro economy in the second half of the year is still relatively large, the property market will face adjustment, the risks in hot cities will intensify, and the growth rate of volume and price will be adjusted back. Destocking is still the main task. Affected by this, the demand for the stone market will shrink, the inventory pressure is still large, and the stone industry is still not optimistic. The industry believes that the current inventory of the stone industry, can not be used within 5 years, destocking is still the main theme of the industry. For many years, it has been a dream for the stone industry to seize the terminal market of home improvement, and it is also a pain. The dream is that under the shrinking of tooling, the home improvement market with great potential seems to be the only correct direction for transformation. The pain is that even if the pioneers of home improvement continue to work hard, there will still be a small increase in the share of stone in home building materials, so the real profit of the industry will be realized. Still unknown in the future.

Fourth, the market trend forecast

According to the statistics, 44.7% of the sample companies this month predicted that their business conditions will continue to improve next month, and about 47.4% believe that they will be flat. In terms of industry prosperity forecast, 39.5% of enterprises predict that the next month will be better, and 50% think it will be flat. It can be seen that the company is more optimistic about the market outlook, and it is predicted that the stone prosperity index will continue to rise slightly in August.

Source: Shuitou Stone Index