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June 2018 China. Shuitou Stone Index Month Watching
Jul 04, 2018

June 2018 "China. Shuitou Stone Index" month watching

    Mid-year low season affects the market, and the prosperity index continues to decline

June 2018 "China·Shuitou Stone Index" Month

According to the information monitoring system of “China·Shuitou Stone Index”, the stone boom index closed at 103.85 points in June, down 10 points from the previous month, and the index continued to fall. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 8.12 points, an increase of about 8.48%. In June, sales, orders, economic benefits and other indicators continued to shrink, the market conditions fell, the prosperity index fell for three consecutive months.

    First, the prosperity index

    Through market surveys on production, sales, orders, inventory, labor, economic benefits and other major indicators compared with last month and forecast of next month's prosperity, the subjective judgment results are statistically calculated, and the stone boom index is closed in June. At 103.85 points, the chain fell 10 points, down about 8.79%, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 8.12 points, an increase of about 8.48%. The prosperity index continued to fall in June, and the decline narrowed slightly.

    According to the survey results, about 62.2% of this month considered that the indicators were the same as the previous period. About 29% of the sample companies believed that the indicators had increased compared with the previous period, and about 8.8% believed that the indicators were lower than the previous period. Compared with the previous month's indicators, this month, the ratio of indicators to the previous period's growth continued to fall, down 10 points from the previous month; the proportion of flats continued to rise, rising by 8 points; the proportion of reduction was also rising. , rose by 2 points. In general, this month's economic indicators continue to shrink.

    From the indicators of this month, in addition to the sample company's ratio of inventory to the previous period is less than 50%, other indicators are more than 50%, which means that 50% and above sample companies believe that most indicators are stable, of which the proportion The largest indicator is labor employment, accounting for 78%, followed by order contracts and economic benefits, accounting for 73.2% and 61% respectively. Compared with the proportion of prosperity indicators in May, in addition to a slight decrease in the ratio of labor employment and inventory, the proportion of other indicators is expected to continue to rise, with the increase of up to 16 points, followed by the economy. Benefits increased by 12.4 points. Contrary to the proportion of the flat, in addition to a slight increase in the proportion of labor and inventory increase, the proportion of other indicators increased, the largest proportion of the company's inventory, accounting for 46.3%, the least proportion of The labor employment is 14.6%. Except this month, the proportion of each index increased compared with the previous month, and the increase was at most 4.9 points.

    The sample company's forecast for the next month's prosperity shows that the company predicts that its operating conditions and industry sentiment will continue to be good at 34.1% and 39% respectively, which is down by 14.4 and 3.8 respectively. The proportion of the company's operating conditions and industry sentiment will be reduced by 65.9% and 58.5%, respectively. It fell by 5.7 and 3.3 points.

Second, the monthly price index point of view

    According to system monitoring, the stone price index closed at 95.75 points in June, up 0.01 points from the previous month, up by about 0.01%. This month, the stone price index rose slightly and the price stabilized. The monthly price index was 99.85 points, lower than the price of the same period last year. Among them, the price of granite and other stone materials was the same as that of last month, the price of marble dropped slightly, and the price of synthetic marble rebounded. From the trend of the weekly price index, the price of this month showed a volatility adjustment. After the price dropped slightly in the second week, the price rose slightly in the third week, and the price at the end of the month was almost the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

The price index on marble this month closed at 97.03 points, down 0.01 points from May and down about 0.01%. The price dropped slightly this month. The monthly price index was 100.42 points, higher than the same period last year. This month, the marble price index showed a trend of volatility adjustment. In the first half of the month, the price declined slightly. By the third week, the price rebounded and the price stabilized at the end of the month. The price of marble slabs fell slightly this month, closing at 93.84 points this month, down 0.02 points; the price of blocks and finished products was unchanged from last month. The price of some large plates this month has been adjusted with the fluctuation of market conditions. The price of large plates has been slightly reduced this month, but most of the prices of large plates have stabilized. The market demand was weaker this month, and some of the large-cap stock prices continued to be slightly reduced.

The price index for granite this month closed at 87.37 points, unchanged from the previous month. The price of granite remained stable this month. The monthly price index was 98.55 points, and the price this month is still lower than the same period last year. The price of granite this month was stable, and there was no fluctuation in the prices of blocks, slabs and finished products, which were reported at 85.95, 100 and 74.12 respectively.

The price of synthetic marbles closed at 101.97 points this month, up 0.08 points month on month, up by about 0.07%, and the monthly price index was 99.15 points. Compared with the same period last year, the price was still low. The price index has stabilized this week and the price fluctuations have changed slightly. As the market for synthetic marble changed, the blocks and finished products were flat with the previous month, and the price of large plates was slightly raised, closing at 103.16, 119.82 and 100.25 respectively.

The price index of other stone products closed at 90.00 points this month and remained stable. The monthly price index was 100.0 points, which was the same as that of the same period last year. The price trend of other stone materials remained stable this month, and the weekly prices were basically unchanged. The prices of jade, quartz stone and travertine were all the same as last month.

    Third, the main factors affecting the prosperity of the stone industry

    In June, the economy continued its trend last month and continued to fall. The decline was slightly narrowed. The prosperity of the stone industry continued to decline this month, and the downward pressure on the industry increased in the middle of the year.

    From the indicators of this month: (1) profit margins narrowed. This month, 24.4% of sample companies believe that economic benefits have increased, down 15.6 points from the previous month. In the middle of the year, the market sentiment atmosphere was relatively cold, and companies were encouraged to promote sales, price reduction promotions or profit-making sales, etc., the company's profit margin narrowed, and corporate profits declined. (2) Production and sales are further reduced. In terms of production and sales volume, this month's increase accounted for 14 and 16 points respectively compared with the previous month. The share of the transaction declined due to reduced demand and overall weak market. At the same time, labor employment has stabilized slightly, and production has become more cautious and output has shrunk. (3) The market outlook is expected to be slightly negative. Judging from the business situation or the prosperity of the next month, more than half of the companies believe that the status quo will be maintained next month.

    Industry insiders admitted that due to the weather, May, June and July have become recognized as the off-season in the stone industry. In order to eliminate the impact of the off-season, the company will use some of the old inventory boards to make promotional plates, attract more people by means of low-cost promotions, and drive sales of new boards or main products that do not make special offers. Thereby improving the overall profit of the enterprise, but also eliminating inventory pressure and withdrawing funds.

    From January to April, the export value of stone industry was 138.81 million yuan, down 16.67% compared with 166.58 million yuan in the same period last year. From the data point of view, the export situation of the stone industry is not optimistic, this is already a situation in which the stone industry has experienced a sluggish export for many years. The industry in the stone industry concluded that there are three main reasons for the decline in total exports: First, the international economic situation has forced foreign trade enterprises without processing factories to close down or transform; Second, the acceleration of internationalization has made stone prices more transparent around the world; Internal disorderly vicious price competition.

    The retreat of stone enterprises has also diluted the market. Nowadays, the water head market has nearly doubled the number of stone practitioners, and many of these new practitioners are deeply versed in marketing, which will inevitably divert the sales of some original stone practitioners. The market competition has become increasingly fierce.    

    The stone industry has already bid farewell to the extensive and explosive growth mode, and is transforming into a new normal, which puts higher requirements on the technological capabilities, production and management capabilities and innovation capabilities of enterprises. Higher requirements have also been placed on the employment problems of enterprises, the cultivation and introduction of enterprise management and technical personnel.

    Fourth, the market trend forecast

    According to the statistical results, 34.1% of the sample companies this month predicted that their business conditions will continue to improve next month, and about 65.9% think they will be flat. In terms of industry outlook, 39% of companies predict that the next month will be better, and 58.5% will be flat. From the data point of view, more than half of the sample companies are conservative about the next month's economy, and the company is cautious about the market outlook. It is predicted that the July Stone Prosperity Index will not improve or will continue to decline.

Source: Shuitou Stone Index