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May 2018 China. Shuitou Stone Index Looks At The Month
Jun 06, 2018

May 2018 “China. Shuitou Stone Index” looks at the month

The efficiency of enterprises has declined, and the boom index continues to callback

- May 2018 "China. Shuitou Stone Index" looks at the month

    According to the "China. Shuitou Stone Index" information system monitoring, the May stone prosperity index closed at 113.86 points, down 11.07 points month on month and the index continued to decline. Compared with the same period of last year, it rose 8.36 points, an increase of about 7.92%. In May, sales, orders, economic returns and other indicators have dropped significantly, and the market conditions have declined. The market outlook is expected to be cautious and the industry's economy is significantly declining.

First, look at the prosperity index

    Through the market survey of several major indicators such as output, sales volume, orders, inventory, labor, and economic benefits, compared with the previous month, and forecast of next month's prosperity, the subjective judgment results were statistically calculated. At 113.86 points, it decreased by 11.07 points month-on-month, dropping by approximately 8.86%, an increase of 8.36 points over the same period of last year, and representing an increase of approximately 7.92%. The monthly prosperity index has clearly declined in May, but it is still above 110 points and is at a relatively high level.

    According to the survey results, about 54.3% of this month believe that the indicators are the same as the previous period. About 38.6% of the sample companies think that the indicators have increased from the previous period, and about 7.1% believe that the indicators have decreased compared with the previous period. Compared with the indicators of the previous month, the proportion of the indicators in this month has changed to varying degrees, and the proportion of reduction is slightly increased compared with the previous month, only 7.1%; and the proportion of indicators increased compared with the previous month. A decrease of 7% means that the flat rate will increase by 5%. The gap between the increase and the flat rate is gradually widening.

    From the indicators of this month, the sample companies believe that the proportion of each indicator increased month-on-month, with the exception of inventory, which was unchanged from the previous month. The most significant declines in this month were from labor employment, enterprise output, and Sales volume decreased by 18.2%, 16.8%, and 12.1%, respectively; the largest share of the increase was output and sales, accounting for 45.7% and 42.9%, respectively. In this month, except for a slight decrease in economic efficiency, the share of other indicators was also increased by a different range from the previous month. The largest percentages of increase were labor employment, production and sales, which rose by 17.5%, 8.2% and 8.2% respectively. The largest share of the flat share was labor, inventory, and order contracts, which accounted for 80%, 60%, and 57.1%, respectively. It is believed that the ratio of each indicator is still lower than that of the previous period, and the economic efficiency and output ratio are both 11.4%. In this month, the percentage of indicators falling in each month showed a slight increase compared with April.

    The forecast results of the sample companies' forecast for next month indicate that the sample companies' judgment on their operating conditions for the next month will be 48.6% that they will be positive, 45.7% that will be flat, and 5.7% that will decline. The overall judgment of the sample companies on the economic prosperity of the stone industry in the next month is: 51.4% think it will be flat, 42.9% think it will be good, and 5.7% think it will drop. This means that most of the sample companies believe that their own operating conditions and prosperity may stabilize next month.

Second, the monthly price index to see

    According to systematic monitoring, the May Stone Price Index closed at 95.74 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.15 points, or an increase of approximately 0.15%. The stone price index continued to rise slightly this month, with an increase from the previous month. The monthly price index was 99.9 points, close to the price of the same period last year. Prices of other stone materials remained flat, marble prices rose slightly, and prices of granite and synthetic marble dropped. Judging from the trend of the weekly price index, this month's price showed a U-shaped volatility to adjust to the rising trend. The mid-month price has dropped, and has risen slightly since the second half of the month.

The marble price index closed at 97.04 points this month, up 0.29 points from April, rising by about 0.30%, and the price continued to rise. The monthly price index was 100.44 points higher than the price of the same period last year. This month, the marble price index showed a fluctuating upward adjustment. In the second week, the price dropped slightly, and prices continued to rise in the third week, and prices stabilized at the end of the month. The price of marble blocks and large slabs were raised this month. Among them, blocks increased by 0.2 points and the board rose by 0.47 points; the prices of finished products were unchanged from last month. They closed at 97.69, 93.86 and 103.1 respectively. The prices of some large plates in the month were adjusted to the fluctuations in market conditions, and the prices of large plates this month rose sharply. Some large slabs have good surface and good luminosity, while some have large squares and the price rises.

    The price index for granites this month closed at 87.37 points, a decrease of 0.13 points or a decrease of approximately 0.15% from the previous month. The price of granites continued to decline this month, and the price was at a recent low. The monthly price index was 98.36 points, and the price was lower than the same period of last year. The price of granite was stable this month. The price of finished products rose slightly. The prices of large slabs remained unchanged from the previous month, while the prices of raw materials dropped sharply, driving the prices of granites to decline. They were closed at 85.95, 100, respectively. 74.12 points.

    Composite marble prices closed at 101.9 points this month, down by 0.03 points month-on-month and down by about 0.03%. The month-on-month price index was 99.56 points, which is still lower than the same period of last year. This week's weekly price index showed an upward trend. The first week's price was the lowest to the end of the month. With the changes in the market for synthetic marble, among which the raw materials and finished products were flat with the previous month, the prices of large plates fell slightly, and they closed at 103.16, 119.82, and 100.12 points respectively.

The price index for other stone products closed at 90.00 points this month and remained stable. The monthly price index was 100.0 points, which was the same as the same period of last year. The prices of other stone products remained stable this month, with no fluctuations in weekly prices. The price of jade and travertine was the same as that of the previous month, and the price of quartz stone continued to rise slightly, closing at 90, 96, and 99.78 points respectively.

Third, the main factors affecting the stone industry boom

The business climate in May continued the trend of the previous month and continued to fall. However, the boom index still exceeded 110 points, and the market was in a good mood. The changes in the indicators for this month are similar to those in the previous month, and the decline in the prosperity index is slightly different.

    The indicators for this month almost all showed a decrease in the proportion of increase, while the proportion of increase and decrease was even higher. (1) The efficiency of the company has fallen. The increase in corporate profits and the proportion of shares held in the same month have both declined. The decreasing trend is obvious. (2) Incremental reduction in labor employment. In this month, 80% of the sample companies believe that the labor workload is stable, and only 14.3% of the sample enterprises think that the use of labor increases, which is a decrease of 18.2% from the previous month. (3) The company's inventory is average. In this month, the proportion of stocks that was considered reasonable was the same as in April, and the percentage that was considered unreasonable this month was 0, and most of the companies considered that the stock was normal. (4) The proportion of increase in output and sales volume has shrunk. This month's sales volume and output of the enterprises are relatively close to each other, and the increase rate has dropped by about 15% from the previous month.

    As an important industry for the order source of the stone industry, the real estate transaction volume is directly proportional to the demand for stone products. In May, the housing and urban-rural development ministry reaffirmed in the “Notice of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China on further improving the real estate market regulation work” issued by the Ministry of Housing Urban and Rural Development in response to recent signs of overheating in some urban real estate markets. The real estate regulation and control goals are unshakeable, and the intensity is not relaxed. We must resolutely curb speculative real estate, adjust measures to local conditions, and implement accurate policies to ensure a stable and healthy development of the real estate market. As a downstream industry of real estate, changes in real estate policies will also affect the order volume of the stone industry.

    But at the same time, in the context of full implementation of the policy on hardcover housing, as the stone industry in the downstream industry of real estate, under the influence of new policies such as the upgrading of consumption and real estate macro-control policies such as “full renovation”, the “home improvement market” is their blue ocean. Since the Nineteenth National Congress, the entry into the home improvement market has been a hot topic. However, there is still no enthusiasm. From the supply side, there is still a market for public works. There is little pressure on the stone companies, and there is insufficient power and limited capacity. At the same time, the lack of "education" on the supply side for consumers is also the main reason why the stone has not become an upsurge in the process of entering the home improvement market. To take this piece of “blue sea”, it means that stone companies should solve the problems of branding and standardization as soon as possible, and at the same time, they should break the “island” state between enterprises and enterprises, enterprises and consumers, and even industry and industry, and promote Communication, close cooperation, open more possibilities for stone to enter the home improvement market. Stone companies want to win the approval of real estate developers and consumers, and stand up in the hardcover market to test the overall strength of the company. At the same time, how to closely link their own products, sales, and real estate markets together to help hardcover housing market, also test the company's business intelligence and development concepts. Quality, variety, brand and reputation are the key to stone companies occupying the commanding heights in the hardcover room market, and they are also the internal strength of winning the challenge.

    IV. Market Trend Forecast

    According to statistics, 48.6% of the sample companies predicted that their operating conditions for the next month will continue to improve, with about 45.7% of the companies expecting to remain flat. As for the forecast of industry boom, the ratio that will continue to be good or even is lower than the company’s own forecast. 42.9% of companies predict that the economy will improve in the next month, and 51.4% think it will be flat. From the data, nearly half of the sample enterprises believe that the economy will stabilize and continue to improve in the next month, and enterprises still have confidence in the market outlook. It is predicted that the stone weather index in June will stabilize or decrease slightly.